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The Science of Assessing Aging Potential

Leah Jorgensen Jean


I had the urge to be playful about this topic – assessing aging potential. I’m contemplating both the experiences of aging humans and aging wine.

That picture (above) was taken about sixteen years ago. At the luminous age of thirty-four, people still thought I was younger. That trend continued well into my forties. My acupuncturist claimed my biological age was in fact younger than my chronological age. A number of factors contribute to this experience of looking young for one’s age. I’d love to tell you that because I drank wine in moderation I enjoyed youthful looks. When in fact I can thank my ancestors for that blessing.

There’s actually a word for looking younger than one’s years – neanimorphic.

Now, if you act younger than your age you’re called immature.

If you think you’re younger than your age, that’s called subjective age bias.

The Italians have a great expression for looking youthful for one’s age – liceo, museo – which means “high school from a distance, museum up close.”

I used to joke that I had a youthful complexion because I didn’t have children. Sure enough, once I had a baby, the aging started to kick in! My complexion is finally starting to catch up with my chronological fifty years. Truthfully, I have never cared about aging. I will never dye my hair to hide the emerging gray. I earned each gray hair. I will never do botox or any other invasive procedure to try to look younger. I plan to embrace each rite of passage in life and celebrate it. But, to each their own.

We are an age obsessed culture, which also means we are a culture of FOGO – “fear of getting old.”

I could write a whole book on aging in America – agism, misogyny and the aging woman, the sad divisions between generations, the mistreatment of older generations, the misunderstandings of aging, and even the irrational and disproportionate fear of aging, especially growing old, called gerontophobia.

There’s much interest in the study of longevity.

There are plenty of billionaires setting up their personal at-home gyms, clinical kitchens and medical spas outfitted with the sine qua non hyperbaric chamber. They have all figured out that money isn’t what really makes life rich. Time has so much more value than any currency. Yet they have the money to buy more time.

Research on the science of longevity, the actual study of factors that contribute to living longer and healthier lives, is a multifaceted field that encompasses various disciplines including biology, genetics, medicine, psychology, and sociology.

Studies have shown that genetics play a significant role in determining lifespan. Longevity often runs in families, indicating a genetic component to longevity. Research has identified several genetic variations associated with increased lifespan, including variations in genes related to metabolism, cellular repair, and immune function.

Lifestyle choices, such as diet, exercise, sleep patterns, and stress management, also play a crucial role in determining longevity. Research consistently demonstrates that individuals who maintain a healthy lifestyle, including a balanced diet rich in fruits and vegetables, regular physical activity, adequate sleep, and effective stress management, tend to live longer and healthier lives. Some believe drinking wine in moderation is a necessary lifestyle choice that contributes to conquering stress and offering a sense of joy, awe and well-being. If they don’t have risk factors associated with consuming any amount of alcohol, they are not wrong!

Research has identified several biological pathways and processes involved in the aging process, including inflammation, oxidative stress, mitochondrial function, cellular senescence, and DNA repair. Understanding these pathways is crucial for developing interventions to slow down the aging process and promote healthy aging.

Social and environmental factors, such as socioeconomic status, education level, social support networks, access to healthcare, and environmental exposures, also influence longevity. Research indicates that individuals with higher socioeconomic status and stronger social connections tend to live longer and healthier lives. While privilege often contributes to longer life, I will say that I have met many poor centurions in my years of volunteering with the elderly in my youth.

Advances in medical science and healthcare have contributed to increased longevity by reducing the burden of infectious diseases, improving access to preventive care and treatments for chronic diseases, and enhancing the quality of healthcare services for older adults.

Psychological factors, such as resilience, optimism, sense of purpose, and emotional well-being, have been linked to longevity. Studies suggest that individuals with positive psychological traits tend to live longer and have better health outcomes.

Overall, research on the science of longevity continues to advance our understanding of the factors that contribute to healthy aging and inform strategies to promote longevity and improve quality of life in aging populations.

So what about wine?

During my sabbatical, I began analyzing the chemistry of wine, particularly to determine aging potential, by comparing older bottles to newer ones. I was curious to see if there were any trends in the analytics of the chemistries of certain aged Cabernet Franc icons (like Clos Rougeard) compared to the chemistries of my Cabernet Franc wines. I also analyzed chronological bottles of same wines in my study to see if there were trends with the same wine over different vintages.

This research was not rocket science. I analyzed a number of chemistry outcomes by producer over time.

When comparing older bottles to new ones, there are specific characteristics you need to address.

Acidity in wine is your first clue to how well a wine will age. Acidity is crucial for the aging process as it helps preserve the wine and provides structure. Over time, some acids may decrease, so comparing the acidity levels in older bottles to those in new ones can give insights into how the wine has evolved.

I would say the second most important factor for assessing a wine’s potential are the tannins. In younger wines, tannins can be more pronounced and astringent, but they tend to mellow and integrate with age. Comparing the tannin levels between older and newer bottles can indicate how the wine has developed.

Phenolic compounds, such as anthocyanins and flavonoids, contribute to a wine’s color, flavor, and mouthfeel. Monitoring changes in phenolic composition can help assess the wine’s aging trajectory.

Sugar content affects sweetness and can impact a wine’s aging potential, especially in the context of dessert wines. Meanwhile, alcohol levels can influence a wine’s perception of body and aging ability. This is not to say that a highly alcoholic wine is a better wine than a lower alcohol wine; but, in terms of aging, a slightly higher alcoholic wine with ample acidity and tannin structure will likely age better than lower alcohol wines. All that said, higher alcoholic content does not have to be 14% or higher! A solid wine at 13.5% alcohol with ample acidity and tannin structure will age very well. Under 13% alcohol even with ample acidity and tannin structure will not age as well, comparatively. Sure! There are exceptions! But this was a baseline study among a single varietal comparing time in the bottle.

Monitoring microbial activity, such as the presence of yeast and bacteria, can provide insights into how the wine has evolved over time. For example, the presence of certain yeast strains may indicate a secondary fermentation process, which could affect the wine’s aging potential. This happens more often than not with wines that had not been properly monitored during fermentation and in barrique for aging prior to bottling. You don’t know what you don’t know. If you’re a winemaker that never studied fermentation science, wine chemistry or microbiology… good luck.

Oxidation plays a significant role in the aging process. While controlled oxidation can enhance complexity and flavor development, excessive oxidation can lead to wine faults. Comparing the oxidation levels between older and newer bottles can help assess the wine’s aging condition.

Assessing chemical stability involves examining various chemical compounds present in the wine, such as sulfur dioxide levels (used as a preservative), volatile acidity, and the presence of any off-flavors or wine faults.

Analyzing these factors involves a combination of laboratory tests, sensory evaluation, and historical data on the wine’s production and storage conditions. By comparing the chemistry of older bottles with new ones, I was able to gauge the aging potential of my wine, which allows me to make more informed decisions regarding its storage, consumption, or further aging.

Most importantly, I was able to study the chemistries in wines in different stages of the aging process – my wines alongside some older (some much older – with provenance information provided) for comparative study – and came to some exciting conclusions!

For one, in a same vintage line up with one of my “young” reserve wines alongside three wines I admire, the chemistries were very closely aligned. Next, when I analyzed a same vintage line up of two of my older vintage wines alongside three wines I admire, again, the chemistries were very closely aligned. Finally, I took my three spread out vintages of my wine and compared them to three producers I admire with three spread out vintages made by each of those producers, and the data showed that my wines chemistries were on the same trajectory, aging-wise, of these three producers.

Finally, I gathered all the analysis from all the other producers I studied and then included the chemistry analysis of four much older bottles of wines by iconic producers that I admired – including a 2005, one from 1993, one from 1985 the oldest bottle in the mix from 1971 – and then I created a curve for all the resulting chemistries. I placed the results of my youngest, mid production, and oldest reserve Cabernet Francs on the curve.

The sad news is that I didn’t back up my laptop and I lost all my data in a computer crash. I wanted to add a screenshot of the curve illustration to show what I discovered! I have far more important and valuable information on that old laptop that I’m trying to salvage! But this leaves me with scraps of my midlife memory trying to remember the order of wines on the final curve. I’m trying to re-created the curve on my new laptop. Stay tuned!

Cabernet Franc is beyond capable of aging magnificently over many years. And the chemistry analysis of my reserve Cabernet Franc wines show a trend to support a solid future for my best wines. If you are interested in collecting wine, I suggest holding on to some of my reserve Cabernet Franc wines. You do not have to rush through them for worry they’ll “go bad”. Be sure you store them properly for optimal aging potential. I wrote all about that in earlier posts about aging wine.

Personally, this was a cause for great celebration. I have intended from the beginning to craft wines meant for aging – not for a decade, but for decades. I like to think of it as a kind of life insurance policy.

My grandmother used to say, when discussing aging and life and death, “no one gets out of here alive.” It is true, all things will come to an end. We celebrate the fullness of a life – in our personal stories and in our wines. It’s interesting to see how science can help us appreciate time all the more.